Scenario study on Melbourne’s future water supply under extreme drought

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Title: Scenario study on Melbourne’s future water supply under extreme drought
Author(s): Imteaz, M. A.; Cairney, M.; Fink, J.; Rahman, A.
Abstract: Australia is a dry continent with highly variable rainfall. Parts of Australia including Melbourne (Victoria) have been experiencing extreme drought conditions for the last ten years. For the year 2006~2007, Victoria experienced the worst drought condition in the last hundred years period. Among OECD countries, Australia is the third largest domestic water consumer (339 l/capita/day). Melbourne currently consumes water at a significantly higher rate when compared with other cities worldwide. Population is increasing rapidly; on the other hand, recent climate studies predicted a 5% reduction in rainfall amount by the year 2020. Adverse climatic conditions combined with a steady population growth raised concerns on the sustainability of Melbourne’s water supply. The impacts of climate change have initiated a diversification in Melbourne’s water resources, resulting in a shift towards rainfall independent water-supply infrastructure. This paper investigated several scenarios through a water balance model under different climatic conditions. A future 10 years simulation based on last decade’s climatic conditions combined with increasing population (hence increase in water demand), reveals that Melbourne’s water storage will be empty by 2016. Even with the augmented supply (150 GL) from the proposed desalination plant, Melbourne’s water storage is predicted to be empty by 2037 if last decade’s climatic conditions are repeated periodically. To be optimistic, a model was developed to predict reliable yields from the existing catchments incorporating predicted climate change effects. Considering 100 years average rainfall amount and current reliable yield, future reliable yield was calculated incorporating the effects from reduction in rainfall and increase in evaporation as predicted in several climate change studies. A population growth model was established to predict Melbourne’s future population. With this increase in future population and water demand, reliable yield model predicts that Melbourne’s water storage will be empty by 2040. Also, it was found that current water consumption will become unsustainable by 2017. However, with the reduced consumption rate (260 l/capita/day) the use of water will be sustainable until 2032. Several scenarios are
Publication type: Conference paper
Research centre: Swinburne University of Technology. Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences
Source: Proceedings of the Environmental Science and Technology Conference: Sustaining the Environment Through Contemporary Science, Technology and Management (ESTEC '09), Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia, 07-08 December 2009, pp. 40-49
Publication year: 2009
FOR Code(s): 090508 Water Quality Engineering; 090509 Water Resources Engineering
Keyword(s): Climate change; Drought; Melbourne; Reliable yields; Water consumption; Water storage
Publisher: Department of Engineering Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu
Publisher URL: http://www.umt.edu.my/ESTEC2009/