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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/164
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- Forecasting the demand for tertiary education using econometric and Markovian models
- Nicholls, Miles G.
- In this paper a model for the demand for tertiary education in the state of Victoria by qualified students leaving secondary school is developed and estimated. The objective of obtaining short-term forecasts is hampered by projection difficulties associated with one of the main independent variables, the eligibles (i.e., the pool of potential tertiary students). In order t o overcome these difficulties an absorbing Markov chain incorporating changing transition proportions is derived and applied. This Markov model, coupled with more conventionally obtained projections of the remaining independent variables, is then used by the demand model to obtain the required forecasts.
- Publication type
- Working paper
- Research centre
- Swinburne Institute of Technology. Faculty of Business
- Publication year
- Australia; Econometric models; Forecasting; Higher education; Markovian models; Mathematical models; Victoria
- Faculty of Business, Swinburne Institute of Technology
- Publisher URL
- Copyright © 1988 Miles G. Nicholls. This work is reproduced in good faith. Every reasonable effort has been made to trace the copyright owner. For more information please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
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