Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/220
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- Title
- Developing a tennis model that reflects outcomes of tennis matches
- Author(s)
- Barnett, Tristan J.; Brown, Alan; Clarke, Stephen R.
- Abstract
- Many tennis models that occur in the literature assume the probability of winning a point on service is constant. We show this assumption is invalid by forecasting outcomes of tennis matches played at the 2003 Australian Open. Revised models are formulated to better reflect the data. The revised models improve predictions overall, particularly for the length of matches and can be used for index betting. Suggestions on further improvements to the predictions are discussed.
- Publication Type
- Conference paper
- Research Centre
- Swinburne University of Technology. Faculty of Life and Social Sciences
- Source
- Proceedings of the 8th Australasian Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport, Coolangatta, Queensland, 3-5 July 2006., pp. 178-188
- Publication Year
- 2006
- Keyword(s)
- Index betting; Markov chain; Sport; Tennis
- Publisher
- Australian and NZ Industrial and Applied Mathematics
- Publisher URL
- http://www.anziam.org.au/MathSport/8M&CS.html
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2006 The Authors.
- ISSN
- 0733100228
- Full Text
- Peer Reviewed
