Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/2271
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- Title
- Factors affecting outcomes in test match cricket
- Author(s)
- Allsopp, Paul; Clarke, Stephen R.
- Abstract
- Least squares regression is used to model the first innings performances of teams in test cricket in order to establish batting and bowling ratings, a common home advan- tage and a country effect. Logistic regression techniques are then used to model match outcomes based on a team’s first innings lead, innings duration, home advantage, bat- ting and bowling ratings and the country effect. It is shown that the factors that impact most significantly on the outcome of a match are a team’s first innings lead home team performance and innings duration. A team’s first innings lead is found to more likely shape a win rather than a draw or a loss whereas the longer the duration of the first innings the more likely a match will end in a draw. It is shown that the home team, on average, needs to establish a lead in excess of 93 runs to have a better than even chance of winning, whereas the away team needs to establish a lead in excess of 115 runs to have the same chance. There is a better than an even chance of a draw for a first innings duration in excess of 1165 minutes (or approximately 277 overs). It is also shown that the home team is more likely to win a match rather than lose or draw, which suggests that the home team has a distinct winning advantage over the away team. There is some evidence suggesting that teams gained an advantage by batting last.
- Publication Type
- Conference paper
- Research Centre
- Swinburne University of Technology. School of Mathematical Sciences
- Source
- Proceedings 6th Australian Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport, Bond University, Queensland, Australia, 1-3 July 2002. , pp. 48-55
- Publication Year
- 2002
- Publisher URL
- http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/6mcs/Program.html
- Full Text
- Peer Reviewed
