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- Want to win at gambling? Use your head
- Clarke, Stephen
- Some say 'punting is a mug’s game'. But is this always true, or can an astute gambler make long-term profits? Many sports punters bet with their hearts, not their heads. This reduces the prices of popular players or teams, thereby increasing the price of their opponents. The low margins and extensive competition even allow punters to sometimes find arbitrage opportunities (where betting on both sides with different bookmakers allows a profit whoever wins). To overcome their heart, and lack of inside knowledge, many mathematicians create mathematical and statistical models based on past data and results to predict the chances of sports outcomes.
- Publication type
- Research centre
- Swinburne University of Technology
- The Conversation, 29 June 2011
- Publication year
- Casinos; Gambling; Mathematical modelling; Probability; Sporting statistics
- The Conversation Media Trust
- Publisher URL
- Copyright © 2011. This publication is licensed for reuse under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 United States (CC BY-ND 3.0) licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/us/). The published version of the article is reproduced here in accordance with this policy.
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