Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza

Search Swinburne Research Bank

Home

List of Titles

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/219928

Check Swinburne's subscriptions for full text availability

Title: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza
Author(s): Samsuzzoha, Md; Singh, Manmohan; Lucy, David
Abstract: The basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium are two very important factors in any deterministic compartmental epidemic model as the basic reproduction number and the point of endemic equilibrium represent the nature of disease transmission and disease prevalence respectively. In this article the sensitivity analysis based on mathematical as well as statistical techniques has been performed to determine the importance of the epidemic model parameters. It is observed that 6 out of the 11 input parameters play a prominent role in determining the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is the most sensitive to the transmission rate of disease. It is also shown that control of transmission rate and recovery rate of the clinically ill are crucial to stop the spreading of influenza epidemics.
Publication type: Journal article
Research centre: Swinburne University of Technology. Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences
Source: Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol. 37, no. 3 (Feb 2013), pp. 903-915
Publication year: 2013
FOR Code(s): 0102 Applied Mathematics
Keyword(s): Epidemic model; Influenza; Sensitivity analysis; Transmission rate; Uncertainty analysis; Vaccination
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0307-904X
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2012.03.029
Peer reviewed