Identifying arbitrage opportunities in AFL betting markets through mathematical modelling

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/4844

Title: Identifying arbitrage opportunities in AFL betting markets through mathematical modelling
Author(s): Bailey, Michael J.
Abstract: Through the use of multiple regression on historical data, it is possible to identify numerically quantifiable factors that can be used to predict the outcomes of AFL games. These predictions can then be compared with the fixed prices offered on the betting market and possible arbitrage opportunities identified. Using complete match results from the 1997 and 1998 AFL seasons a prediction model was developed that, when used on the 1999 season offered positive returns on investment.
Publication type: Conference paper
Research centre: Swinburne University of Technology. School of Mathematical Sciences
Source: Proceedings of the 5th Australian Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sport, 14-16 June 2000, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, pp. 37-42
Publication year: 2000
Publisher: UTS Printing Services
ISBN: 1 86365 535 2
Publisher URL: http://www.iacss.org/meetings/iacss_mcs05.html
Peer reviewed