Permanent link: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/789
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- Title
- Using official ratings to simulate major tennis tournaments
- Author(s)
- Clarke, Stephen R.; Dyte, David
- Abstract
- While the official Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) computer tennis rankings are used to seed players in tournaments, they are not used to predict a player's chance of winning. However, since the rankings are derived from a points rating, an estimate of each player's chance in a head to head contest can be made from the difference in the players' rating points. Using a year's tournament results, a logistic regression model was fitted to the ATP ratings, to estimate the chance of winning as a function of the difference in rating points. Once the draw for a tournament is available, the resultant probabilities can be used in a simulation to estimate each player's chance of victory. The method was applied to the 1998 Men's Wimbledon, 1998 Men's US Open and the 1999 Men's Australian tennis championships.
- Publication Type
- Journal article
- Research Centre
- Swinburne University of Technology. School of Mathematical Sciences
- Source
- International transactions in operational research, Vol. 7, no. 6 (Nov. 2000), pp. 585-594
- Publication Year
- 2000
- Keyword(s)
- Sports; Ranking; Tennis; Simulation; Logistic regression
- Publisher
- Blackwell Publishers
- Publisher URL
- International transactions in operational research
- Publisher URL
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6016(00)00036-8
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2000 IFORS.
- ISSN
- 0969-6016
- Full Text
- Peer Reviewed
